Countdown from 100 -> 0 --> #1 (last 12 months)

[Jan K.]

The DistroWatch numbers really doesn't mean anything... or at least they shouldn't.

The real number to aim for is the number of installments of Microsoft Windows...

I've been around Linux for long enough to really appreciate the incredible amount of work and love that has brought us to the current state, but for really speeding things up, we seriously should begin to pay (more) for the goods we enjoy and rely on daily...

Have been working on a little piece for a while, almost ready to post... more to come! But don't hold your breath!

[KBD]

I do think it matters. I watched for years as Ubuntu ruled the roost at Distrowatch. Then came the Gnome 3 firestorm, and it brought winners and losers. Not everyone loved Ubuntu's new approach with the Unity DE. People did love Mint's multi-pronged approach of keeping old gnome alive (MATE) and its new approach to taming gnome (Cinnamon) which put it at the top of Distrowatch for ages. I think regressions have affected both Ubuntu and Mint through its Ubuntu base for several years. The Ubuntu base of the 14.04 and 16.04 LTS releases were very solid and Mint benefited from it. 18.04 was not so great, and systemd has brought many problems which MX has benefited from. MX has also gotten better with each release, has an active, helpful community, and benefits from using Debian Stable as its base, but in a much more polished and user friendly form. Add in the back drop of Ubuntu looking to launch an IPO soon, and uncertainty that comes from that, and I think it is not surprising to see two community-driven outliers: MX and Manjaro riding high on Distrowatch. Does it matter? Yes, it shows MX is doing a combination of things correctly.

[rasat]

@KBD, well analysed.

[skidoo]

The DistroWatch numbers really doesn't mean anything... or at least they shouldn't.

Ouch.
That's like telling kiddies the Easter Bunny isn't real...

[dreamer]

Distrowatch is a popularity contest based on clicks on the DW site. Pretty meaningless (but not completely) if you ask me. I do think that MX Linux has gained users faster than any other distro in the past year(s).

If we want more meaningful popularity numbers let's look at forum activity. I think we have two leaders. Linux Mint forum and Ubuntu forum (+ official flavors like Ubuntu MATE and Kubuntu forums).

I don't have numbers for the latter, but Linux Mint forum states:

Most users ever online was 2029 on Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:27 am

The same number for MX Linux is:

Most users ever online was 717 on Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:46 pm

In terms of popularity I would put Linux Mint first (because we have an actual number) and Ubuntu (+official flavors) second. MX Linux seems to have more forum activity than Manjaro and if we add antiX the gap becomes even wider. So I would say MX Linux is the third most popular distro in the world based on forum activity, which is a much better measurement than Distrowatch IMO.

Of course forum activity could be analyzed in much more detail. Before someone says that MX Linux has less forum activity because it has less bugs, that's not how it works. A popular distro with a bad release will see a short burst of forum activity with problem/bug reports. But Linux users aren't loyal. And after that short burst of forum activity users start leaving and forum activity goes down to a level much lower than before the bad release happened. So you can't really fake forum activity by buggy releases. Users just leave instead one by one.

This is what happened to Ubuntu and official flavors and the reason the Ubuntu community is (relatively) smaller now than 10 years ago.

That being said I don't think any other distro deserves the top spot on Distrowatch better than MX Linux. That's some crazy dedication from a small team of very helpful people. It's almost like I feel like a bad person when I see how much help they give for free despite being busy with software development, website, forum, documentation etc.

So I see the MX Linux DW ranking as a reflection of all the hard work the MX team put in, not only writing better software, but also being more helpful.

I just don't want the DW ranking to be confused with the most popular distro (in terms of users). In fact, since MX Linux is still relatively "unknown", there is a chance that the DW clicks will keep coming and MX Linux can stay on top for some time. Just like Linux Mint, MX Linux can also continue to expand its userbase long after it has peaked and fallen on Distrowatch.

[JayM]

Of course forum activity could be analyzed in much more detail. Before someone says that MX Linux has less forum activity because it has less bugs, that's not how it works. A popular distro with a bad release will see a short burst of forum activity with problem/bug reports. But Linux users aren't loyal. And after that short burst of forum activity users start leaving and forum activity goes down to a level much lower than before the bad release happened. So you can't really fake forum activity by buggy releases. Users just leave instead one by one.

There's some truth in that. On the other hand, number of users in a distro's support forum does have a direct relationship with the number of users experiencing problems and seeking help. If the majority of users don't have problems and everything works, unless they decide to pop in just to say "thanks" or "good job" they probably aren't going to even bother to register. So you still can't use the number of forum users to try to estimate the number of MX users as the happy ones could very well be a silent majority: we just have no way of knowing.

A better metric would be the cumulative number of downloads from all the mirrors. This would give an idea of the number of people who have at least tried MX or plan to do so, not taking into account those who get it via torrent.

[skidoo]

"Most users ever online was xxyyzz" may not be apples-to-apples comparison.
forumA might be configured to use a 24hr (or 48, or 72!) session cookie timeout, vs forumB @15minute timeout.
Also, a forum's sysadmin may (I've seen this done in the context of sites being put up for sale) inflate the count by manually editing the database.

A better metric would be

expire the repo keyring key, then sit back and watch how many come a runnin' to download the new key?

Hmm...


just sayin'

[Eggnog]

Those making serious comments about the distro on Distrowatch's MX page is a good indication that people like its stability, simplicity, ease of use and, of course, MX Tools. I think having it ranked fairly high on the hits list has gotten at least more people to try it and, when they have, they liked it. I also think retaining SysV as default has helped, too, while making systemd available. For the first time, in as long as I can remember, I really can't be bothered to try another distro in either VBox or on a separate partition to play with. Nothing sounds interesting. I'll probably see something shiny sooner or later to have a peek at and kick the tires. MX is the bee's knees and the cat's meow.

it's also easy to tell the trolls who typically write that MX is buggy, doesn't recognize their hardware, crashed and yada, yada, yada. You know they haven't even downloaded it. They can't wait to rate it as a "1". It's pretty funny.

[figueroa]

..., but for really speeding things up, we seriously should begin to pay (more) for the goods we enjoy and rely on daily...

Seriously, NO. I'm way into the "software should be free" camp. For questions, refer to: https://www.gnu.org/
:-)

[malspa]

I'm kinda glad that MX is about to hit #1 in the rankings, but it's mostly just entertainment to me. Recently, I took a look at the DW rankings for each year since they've been doing it. Puts things into perspective -- they come and they go. Maybe MX will have a long run at #1 like Mint did. By the way, sometimes I wonder if Ubuntu and the Ubuntu flavors shouldn't have their hits per day totalled together.